2010-2011 Financial Plan Mid-Year Update – Executive Summary

Revisions to the 2010-11 Financial Plan

DOB has made a number of substantial revisions to the General Fund receipts and disbursements forecasts contained in the Enacted Budget Financial Plan. The revisions are based on a comprehensive review of operating results to date, updated economic data, and other information. The following table summarizes the Mid-Year revisions and displays the impact on General Fund operating projections over the forecast period. It is followed by a discussion of the major revisions. Certain revisions displayed on the table are reclassifications of receipts and disbursements projections that have no net Financial Plan impact (e.g., Mental Hygiene). In other cases, revisions may affect both receipts and disbursements and need to be considered together to understand the Financial Plan impact. For instance, revisions related to reductions in State agency operations included in the Enacted Budget Financial Plan and allocated to agency budgets for the first time in this Mid-Year Update affect both receipts and disbursements. (For example, a reduction to State agency operations funded by a special revenue fund is displayed as a transfer of resources from the special revenue fund, thereby increasing General Fund receipts.)

GENERAL FUND FORECAST FOR 2010-11 THROUGH 2013-14
SAVINGS/(COSTS)
(millions of dollars)
  2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
ENACTED BUDGET SURPLUS/(GAP) ESTIMATE 0 (8,177) (13,461) (15,563)
Total Receipts Revisions (162) (750) (983) (1,069)
Forecast Revisions: (88) 60 (86) (157)
Tax Forecast Revisions (278) (105) (339) (405)
Personal Income Tax* (300) (302) (322) (323)
Sales/Use Taxes* (94) 80 (1) 0
Business Taxes 69 117 (16) (82)
Other Taxes* 47 0 0 0
18-A Assessment  (40) (28) (28) (28)
Mental Hygiene  73 139 226 240
Workers Compensation Assessment Surplus 65 0 0 0
Debt Management 43 0 0 0
Allocation of Agency Operational Savings  33 62 52 44
All Other  16 (8) 3 (8)
Other Adjustments (No Net Financial Plan Impact) (74) (810) (897) (912)
Mental Hygiene Accounting Reclassifications (168) (810) (897) (912)
Allocation of FMAP Contingency Savings 94 0 0 0
Total Disbursement Revisions (153) (99) (200) (600)
Forecast Revisions (227) (909) (1,097) (1,512)
Medicaid/HCRA (368) (725) (859) (827)
Program Costs/Caseload Increases (732) (800) (841) (887)
HCRA/Other Medicaid (125) (135) 21 (89)
Medicare Part D Clawback 223 38 0 0
FMAP Reestimate/State/Local Share Reconciliation 300 208 0 0
Federal Health Care Reform (34) (36) (39) 149
Human Services 156 151 149 146
School Aid 12 (109) (156) (354)
Lottery Aid (83) (11) (63) (68)
Higher Education 2 (100) (166) (169)
Transportation/Motor Vehicles 74 64 94 115
Public Safety/Criminal Justice (10) (25) (33) (71)
Judiciary 0 132 13 (129)
Fringe Benefits 8 (12) (65) (53)
Health Insurance (40) (75) (125) (125)
Pension (1) 22 45 57
All Other Fringe Benefits 49 41 15 15
Mental Hygiene (84) (118) (229) (309)
Allocation of Agency Operational Savings  (187) 89 236 246
Timing of Outstanding Labor Agreements 204 (204) 0 0
All Other 49 (41) (18) (39)
Other Adjustments (No Net Financial Plan Impact) 74 810 897 912
Mental Hygiene Accounting Reclassifications 168 810 897 912
Allocation of FMAP Contingency Savings (94) 0 0 0
REVISED BUDGET SURPLUS/(GAP) ESTIMATE (315) (9,026) (14,644) (17,232)
(Increase)/Decrease From Enacted Budget (315) (849) (1,183) (1,669)
Proposed Across-the-Board Reductions (Requires Leg. Approval) 375 0 0 0
Funding for Initiatives (60) 0 0 0
PROPOSED BUDGET SURPLUS/(GAP) ESTIMATE 0 (9,026) (14,644) (17,232)
 
* Tax changes include transfers from other funds before the impact of revisions to debt service costs.

RECEIPTS REVISIONS

General Fund receipts, including transfers from other funds, are estimated to total $54.5 billion in 2010-11, a decrease of $162 million compared to the Enacted Budget Financial Plan. Lower estimated tax receipts are expected to be offset in part by higher receipts from other sources, including miscellaneous receipts and nontax transfers from other funds.

DISBURSEMENT REVISIONS

General Fund disbursements, including transfers to other funds, are estimated at $55.7 billion in 2010-11, an increase of $153 million from the Enacted Budget Financial Plan. Likewise, spending has been increased in subsequent years. The most significant revisions are summarized below.

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